SE. Asia eyes low-carbon development

Southeast Asian countries are working on energy transition to boost economic growth while reducing carbon emissions, but most are still in the early stages of such a transition, analysts say.

"We can see that most ASEAN countries have a plan to reach net-zero emission (in the next 30 to 40 years) … they have a clear target to reach carbon neutrality," said Fabby Tumiwa, executive director of the Institute for Essential Services Reform in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations want to boost their economies but with "less intensive carbon emissions", which is why they plan to develop more renewable energy to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and gradually phase out coal plants, Tumiwa said.

However, the progress of renewable energy production across Southeast Asia is uneven, he added.

While Vietnam has significantly increased renewable energy, countries such as Indonesia are still in the process of moving in that direction, he said. "This is something that should be done by every country, by being ambitious with the energy transition."

Aditya Lolla, the Asia program director at Ember, an energy think tank in London, said most ASEAN countries are still in the early stages of energy transition and this is supported by the rise of cheaper clean energy technology.

However, uncertainty over policy and regulations may keep businesses from investing in the bloc's renewable energy sector, Lolla said.

"Clean energy needs a market, (which) gives certainty to investors to come and invest into new projects and to develop them. You have to send the right market signals through policy and regulation."

ASEAN countries are "demand powerhouses" as their fast-growing economies also demand more electricity and power generation, he added.

The bloc also has to respond to three challenges: How to achieve energy security, how to keep power rates affordable for citizens, and how to ensure enough supply to meet the demand, he said.

"I think the entire world's eyes are on ASEAN and how ASEAN will actually manage transition. ASEAN has to meet the growing demand and meet it with a new …clean form of energy. So it's not an easy task," Lolla said.

ASEAN countries have committed to reducing their emissions as signatories to the Paris climate pact.

The bloc is establishing an ASEAN Centre for Climate Change in Brunei to facilitate cooperation and coordination on climate change initiatives among its members.

In a joint statement issued on Oct 9 at the 44th and 45th ASEAN Summits held in Laos, ASEAN "re-emphasized" measures to address and facilitate a just transition, including collaboration in developing low-emission technologies and facilitating cross-border flows of clean and renewable energy.

At last year's summit in Indonesia, ASEAN leaders committed to achieving a 23 percent renewable energy share in the bloc's energy mix, with clean energy accounting for 35 percent in installed power capacity by next year, under the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation.

However, studies show that ASEAN is still lagging behind its energy transition target.

Between 2015 and 2022, ASEAN recorded a 43 percent average annual growth in solar and wind generation, according to a report published last year by Ember.

Combined solar and wind generation grew from 4.2 terawatt hours to 50 TWh between 2015 and 2022, which accounted for 14 percent of the total electricity demand growth seen in the same period.

Key driver

Vietnam, which introduced a feed-in tariff policy in 2017, was the key driver behind this growth and it alone contributed 69 percent of the total solar and wind generation in the region in 2022, Ember said.

However, the International Energy Agency estimates that for the ASEAN region to be on track for the 2050 net-zero emission scenario, solar and wind need to account for 23 percent of total electricity generation. Ember said ASEAN needs an additional 164 gigawatts of solar capacity and 65 GW of wind capacity by 2030 to meet the IEA target.

Putra Adhiguna, the Jakarta-based managing director of the Energy Shift Institute, an independent think tank, said Southeast Asian countries need to show that they can build an integrated power grid within the region and how this can accelerate energy transition in the region.

An integrated regional power grid is the future for ASEAN's energy transition, allowing member countries to harness indigenous clean energy sources and generate electricity through a regional power grid, he said.

ASEAN has no existing regional power grid but there exists bilateral cooperation among its members, such as the Singapore-Indonesia solar power export deal.

prime@chinadailyapac.com