WTO reports steady global goods trade in early 2025, cautioning policy uncertainty

GENEVA -- The World Trade Organization (WTO) said on Wednesday that global goods trade showed signs of continued growth at the start of 2025, as reflected in the latest Goods Trade Barometer.

The barometer?— a composite leading indicator for global merchandise trade?— edged up slightly to 102.8 in January 2025, compared with the previous reading of 102.7 in December 2024. Barometer values above 100 indicate above-trend trade volumes, while values below 100 suggest that goods trade has either fallen below trend or is likely to decline in the near future.

According to the WTO, the latest reading suggests that merchandise trade remains above trend, with accelerating growth. However, the organization cautioned that increased trade policy uncertainty and the potential for new tariffs could affect trade in the medium term, with demand expected to weaken later in the year.

The barometer's component indices for export orders, electronic components, and raw materials remained on trend, while those for automotive products, container shipping, and air freight were above trend to varying extents.

Developments in the first three quarters of last year were broadly in line with the WTO's most recent trade forecast, released on Oct 10, which projected trade volume growth of 2.7 percent for 2024 and 3 percent for 2025.