Home>News Center>Bizchina
       
 

World Bank upwardly adjusts GDP growth for third time
By Liu Weiling & Dai Yan (China Daily)
Updated: 2005-11-04 06:18

China's economy is looking to have a "very soft landing," though the government should continue to keep a close eye on investment growth and develop a new growth model, the World Bank said yesterday.

In its latest quarterly update, the bank forecast the growth of China's gross domestic product (GDP) to be 9.3 per cent for this year and 8.7 per cent for 2006 with inflation remaining under control.

It was the third time this year that the World Bank has positively re-adjusted its growth projection for China, following predictions of 8.3 per cent in April and 9 per cent in August. This time the bank attributed the country's higher-than-expected economic growth to the rapid growth in domestic demand.

Domestic demand accounted for some 75 per cent of growth in the third quarter, compared to 40 per cent in the first half of the year, the bank said.

"The latest figures suggest a pick-up in domestic demand, while the contribution of trade to growth is falling," Bert Hofman, the bank's lead China economist, said.

"This is good news for China's trade surplus, which is now likely to come down as a result of these demand developments."

Recent trade patterns are in line with buoyant domestic activity. China's export growth averaged over 30 per cent in the first eight months, but dropped to 26 per cent in September, whereas import growth is on the rise.

During the second half of 2004 and the first half of 2005, weak domestic demand, triggered by policy tightening, significantly affected imports, in particular steel, chemicals, machinery and equipment. Recently, import growth recovered from 14 per cent year-on-year in the first half to 24 per cent in August-September. Steel imports traditionally a good indicator for construction activity also increased in September.

But at the same time, World Bank warned that China should watch the apparent pick-up in investment, and the recent rise in liquidity in the banking system, which may yet spill over into higher credit growth.

"In the current circumstances, more rapid growth in credit and investment would be unwelcome," it said. "Investment is already considered to be too high and concerns about over-investment triggered the tightening measures in 2004," Hofman said.

Fixed asset investment has unexpectedly rebounded in China recently. Its growth picked up to 28.5 per cent in the third quarter, from 26.4 per cent in the first half, despite moderate credit growth and profit growth that is considerably below that of last year.

The bank said new policy measures may be required to dampen investment as recent indicators suggest that consumption growth may still lag behind investment next year.

And when China's government wants to make growth less investment-based and more consumer based, public finance measures can play a key role to increase the share of consumption in GDP, it continued.

"Shifting government spending from investment to health and education would directly reduce national saving and investment in favour of consumption," the bank said.

(China Daily 11/04/2005 page9)

 
  Story Tools  
   
Manufacturers, Exporters, Wholesalers - Global trade starts here.
Advertisement
         
主站蜘蛛池模板: 欧美老人巨大xxxx做受视频| 国产人妖xxxx做受视频| 免费看美女部位隐私直播| 97碰公开在线观看免费视频| 激情小说在线播放| 国产成人无码AⅤ片在线观看| 一日本道a高清免费播放| 欧美大黑帍在线播放| 国产AV一区二区三区最新精品| 999无色码中文字幕| 成人免费午夜视频| 亚洲av永久综合在线观看尤物 | 国产chinasex对白videos麻豆| 99ri在线观看| 日本69式xxx视频| 亚洲第一极品精品无码久久| 色综合天天综合网站中国| 国产麻豆videoxxxx实拍| 中文字幕精品一区二区精品| 欧美成人精品福利在线视频| 向日葵app下载视频免费| 加勒比黑人在线| 亚洲av永久无码精品水牛影视 | 日本一道本高清免费| 亚洲欧美日韩中文字幕在线一 | 娜露温泉无删减视频在线看 | 久久只有这才是精品99| 欧美黑人巨大videos在线| 免费A级毛片无码免费视频首页 | 青青草91视频| 国产精品极品美女自在线| 上海大一18cm男生宿舍飞机| 最新国产精品亚洲| 人妻av无码一区二区三区| 色网站在线播放| 国产在线19禁免费观看国产| 2023av在线播放| 尤物yw午夜国产精品视频| 久久精品国产亚洲av瑜伽| 欧美视频在线观看免费最新| 人妻精品无码一区二区三区|