瑞士銀行的分析人士用數(shù)學(xué)模型對(duì)今年南非世界杯的結(jié)果進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)，稱曾經(jīng)五次獲得世界杯冠軍的巴西隊(duì)，此次奪冠的幾率為22％，是最有可能奪冠球隊(duì)；而目前大熱的英格蘭隊(duì)和西班牙隊(duì)獲勝的幾率相當(dāng)?shù)停鶠?％。此次預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果是分析人士根據(jù)各個(gè)球隊(duì)的歷史成績(jī)和當(dāng)前的積分排名情況，利用“經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)量工具箱和定量模型”測(cè)算后得出的。測(cè)算結(jié)果還顯示，東道主南非隊(duì)進(jìn)入淘汰賽的幾率高達(dá)78%，英格蘭的小組賽出線幾率為63%，而晉級(jí)八強(qiáng)的概率為21%。瑞士銀行的分析人士曾經(jīng)通過(guò)模型成功預(yù)測(cè)了2006年的世界杯冠軍為意大利，同時(shí)還成功預(yù)測(cè)了16強(qiáng)中的13支球隊(duì)以及八強(qiáng)中的6支球隊(duì)。

Brazil was the winner of 2002 FIFA World Cup Korea/Japan.

UBS bankers have used a mathematical model to predict the champions of the South Africa 2010 World Cup – and say England and Spain have just 4pc chance of winning.

Brazil, who have claimed the trophy a record five times, are the likely winners this summer, with 22pc probability of victory, the Swiss investment bank said.

The UBS Wealth Management team found Spain, the European champions and bookmakers' favorite, to have just a 4pc shot at the title. Fabio Capello's England also has just a 4pc chance, it said.

"Football fans may feel that the European champions and firm fans favorite Spain is under-rated by the UBS model," the bank's global equity research team said in its World Cup 2010 research paper on Wednesday.

"And our local UK readers may feel the same about England’s chances. However, both teams have tended to be underachievers when it comes to the World Cup finals themselves. In the last three events, Spain and England were ranked amongst the strongest teams but did not make it beyond the quarter-final stage.

"Brazil has the highest probability [of winning]."

UBS used its "econometric toolbox and quantitative models" to forecast the winner based on factors including historic results and the teams' current "Elo ratings" – which take account of not only recent wins, losses and defeats, but the conditions under which those events occurred. Beating a powerhouse like Brazil or Spain would improve a team’s Elo ranking much more than beating a smaller side like Malta or Andorra.

The bank also believes World Cup hosts South Africa, despite their uninspiring recent form, are all but guaranteed a place in the second round, rating their chances at 78pc.

Brazil are the second most likely to progress with 74pc. The country least likely to progress, with a probability of just 29pc, is Paraguay, UBS said.

England was rated 63pc likely to escape the group stage and 21pc guaranteed to reach the semi-finals.

The UBS model was applauded in 2006 when it selected the winner, Italy. The bankers also correctly predicted 13 of the final 16, six of the final eight, and two of the semi-finalists.

However, when using the model for the 2008 European Championship, the forecast winner did not make it to the second round. "The moral of the story is that one needs to be humble about the predictive power of one’s model," the Wealth Management team said.

UBS's predicted quarter-finalists

Country????????????? Likelihood of winning World Cup 2010

Brazil??????????????????????? 22pc

Germany????????????????? 18pc

Italy?????????????????????????? 13pc

Netherlands????????????? 8pc

France????????????????????? 6pc

Argentina???????????????? 5pc

Spain?????????????????????? 4pc

England?????????????????? 4pc

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(Agencies)

Vocabulary:

Elo ratings: 埃羅排名，是用來(lái)計(jì)算一個(gè)人在雙人對(duì)決性比賽里的相對(duì)的技能等級(jí)的一個(gè)系統(tǒng)，最早應(yīng)用于國(guó)際象棋和圍棋。簡(jiǎn)單的說(shuō)，就是把“實(shí)力”這種比較“虛”的東西數(shù)字化的一種辦法。這個(gè)系統(tǒng)是由物理學(xué)教授Arpad Elo創(chuàng)立的，因此以他的名字命名。這一積分等級(jí)系統(tǒng)現(xiàn)已廣泛應(yīng)用于足球等多人參與的對(duì)決性比賽，參加比賽的級(jí)別、凈勝球數(shù)以及比賽結(jié)果等均在計(jì)算參數(shù)之列。

（中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)網(wǎng)英語(yǔ)點(diǎn)津 Helen 編輯）