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Political ice dents cross-Straits economic ties
By Xing Zhigang (China Daily)
Updated: 2004-08-16 07:17
The whole world knows relations between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland have
suffered because of Taipei's hard push for independence.
Visitors look for
business opportunities at the Taiwan stand at a trade fair held in Ningbo
of Zhejiang Province. [newsphoto/file] |
But economic and trade exchanges across the Straits have surprisingly boomed
over the past two decades despite political ups and downs.
Cross-Straits trade volume reached a record high of US$58.6 billion last
year, with the mainland becoming Taiwan's biggest trade partner and largest
source of trade surplus.
The number of Taiwanese-funded projects on the mainland had risen to 62,000
by the end of May, with contract investment of US$73 billion.
The warmer economic ties have prompted economists to predict an inevitable
trend of closer economic integration between the highly-complementary economies
of Taiwan and the mainland.
Researchers in cross-Straits studies, however, have begun to worry about the
prospects, given Taiwan leader Chen Shui-bian's efforts to step up his splittist
timetable.
"If everything goes purely in line with the principle of economics, economic
relations can be strengthened to benefit both Taiwan and the mainland," says Wu
Nengyuan, director of the Institute of Modern Taiwan Studies under the Fujian
Academy of Social Sciences.
"But uncertain factors from the impact of politics will make the situation
more complicated."
The researcher acknowledged that Beijing and Taipei have politically walked
further apart, despite sharing increasingly close economic exchanges.
Semi-official talks between the mainland's Association for Relations Across
the Taiwan Straits and its Taiwan counterpart the Straits Exchange Foundation
were broken off in July 1999, when former Taiwan leader Lee Teng-hui introduced
the notorious "two states" theory.
This defines the ties between both sides of the Taiwan Straits as a
state-to-state relationship.
The stalemate in bilateral relations has remained since Chen, from the
pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), took power in May 2000 to
end more than 50 years of Kuomintang rule over the island.
The new Taiwan leader has refused to recognize himself as Chinese, to say
nothing of accepting the one-China principle that both Taiwan and the mainland
are part of China.
On August 3, 2002, Chen provoked new tension by preaching that "each side (of
the Taiwan Straits) is a country."
As he starts his second term, he has gone even further to introduce a
pro-independence timetable to write a new "constitution" through referendum in
2006 and then enact the document in 2008.
Political alienation
"These contribution of economic exchanges to the development of bilateral
political ties should not be exaggerated," Wu says.
Workers at the
assembly line of a Taiwan-invested enterprise in Xiamen, Fujian Province.
[newsphoto/file] |
But Deng Lijuan, a senior researcher with the Academy of Taiwan Studies at
Xiamen University, believes close economic co-operation has actually played a
significant part in stabilizing ties.
"The existence and development of separatist forces on the island are rooted
in Taiwan's special historical conditions and have nothing to do with
cross-Straits trade ties," she says.
Deng argues that it is unrealistic to expect the development of economic
relations to eliminate the concept of "Taiwan independence" and splittist forces
on the island.
But because of Taiwan's growing dependence on the mainland market, the Taiwan
authorities have had to modify policies that were originally aimed at alienating
the island from the mainland, though with much hesitation.
In 2001, Chen had to give up his predecessor's "go slow, be patient" policy,
which required strict control over the island's investment in the mainland.
Instead, he introduced the so-called "aggressive opening, effective
management" approach to relax trade restrictions.
Last October, the DPP administration had to revise the Statute Governing the
Relations between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area to ease
restrictions on investment, trade and business exchanges.
Tsai Ing-wen, former chairwoman of the island's "mainland affairs council,"
once said: "Cross-Straits economic and trade exchanges have become a critical
part that cannot be ignored in Taiwan's economic development."
More important, the researcher says, economic exchanges have helped form a
large and important force that stands for stable relations.
As the number of Taiwan-funded enterprises on the mainland rises, a few
million Taiwan business people and their family members are travelling across
the Straits each year. Quite a large number of them, estimated at about half a
million, have even chosen to live on the mainland.
Stabilizing role
To help safeguard their fundamental interests, Taiwanese investors, including
the island's business tycoons and owners of small and medium-sized firms, have
developed into an influential political group.
On the economic front, most of these business leaders and their family
members call for closer economic relations and the establishment of the three
direct links - trade, transport and postal services.
Politically, they oppose any risky splittist moves that may threaten peace
and stability and promote the maintenance of the cross-Straits status quo.
To demonstrate their great disappointment at Chen's mainland policy, hundreds
of thousands of Taiwanese investors flew home from the mainland to vote in the
"presidential" elections in March.
Some 180,000 mainland-based business people returned to cast their ballots
and the bulk were believed to have voted against Chen, whose controversial
victory has been widely questioned due to a mysterious election-eve shooting.
Deng forecasts that the immediate interests of Taiwanese businessmen and
their strong call for better cross-Straits ties will put Taipei under mounting
pressure.
Despite the importance of the stabilizing role of economic exchanges, Deng
admits the development of ties will meet more challenges and difficulties ahead.
"If the current confrontation becomes a crisis, relations will undoubtedly be
severely damaged," she says.
Wang Zaixi, vice-minister of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council,
recently told China Daily that separatist forces form the biggest hurdle
blocking relations.
The development of pro-independence forces, if not effectively contained,
will ultimately hurt the economic growth of the mainland and Taiwan, he said on
the sidelines of a seminar held in Hangzhou, capital of Zhejiang Province.
For the first time, the senior official warned of the possibility of a
cross-Straits military clash by 2008 if Chen sticks to his pro-independence
stance.
"New tensions and even a serious crisis in the situation may arise, if Chen
obstinately pursues his timetable," he said.
"We cannot completely rule out the possibility (of a military conflict),
though it is not at all what we hope for."
Beijing has stood for a peaceful reunification of Taiwan with the mainland
while at the same time, not committing itself to dropping the use of force if
the island declares "independence."
As one of the latest signs for the urgency of curbing splittist forces,
Beijing has pledged to crack down on a handful of Taiwanese investors who make
money on the mainland and return to Taiwan to support independence.
Guo Zhenyuan, a research fellow with the China Institute of International
Relations, says instability and uncertainty in cross-Straits ties are set to
dent the confidence of both mainland and Taiwanese investors.
Meanwhile, the Taiwan authorities are also expected to impose stricter limits
on economic exchanges, citing security concerns.
Guo points out that all these negative factors may undermine the environment
for smooth development of economic relations in the coming years.
"We are confident that the mainland's long-standing policy of separating
politics from economic affairs will continue to encourage the development of
cross-Straits economic exchanges," Guo says.
"But interference from pro-independence forces and splittist activities is
really something we cannot ignore."
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